Verdict and Prediction 
Belgium vs Italy Prediction
2024-11-14 | UEFA Nations League | League A, Group 2
Belgium host Italy at the King Baudouin Stadium in Brussels in Matchday 5 of the UEFA Nations League A2 campaign. Italy lead the group with 10 points from four matches and require only a single point to secure qualification to the quarter-finals, whereas Belgium sit third on 4 points, needing a victory to keep their qualification hopes alive and avoid the relegation play-offs.
Team Form
Belgium
Domenico Tedesco’s side enter this fixture with only one win from their last six competitive matches across Euro 2024 and the current Nations League campaign. Over their last 10 official matches, Belgium have recorded 4 wins, 3 draws, and 3 defeats, scoring 12 goals and conceding 9. In the current Nations League group, their sole victory was a 3-1 win against Israel on neutral ground, followed by a 2-0 defeat to France, a 2-2 draw in Rome against Italy, and a 1-2 home defeat to France.
At home in competitive play, Belgium have shown mixed defensive reliability, conceding in each of their last two home Nations League encounters. Their inability to contain high-tempo transitions was evident against France, where they conceded twice from 1.62 xGA.
The squad faces significant absences for this international window. Key midfielder Kevin De Bruyne remains omitted to manage fitness, while winger Jérémy Doku, playmaker Charles De Ketelaere, and Youri Tielemans withdrew due to injury problems. Romelu Lukaku returns to captain the attack, offering a necessary physical outlet up front.
Italy
Italy have undergone a marked tactical resurgence under Luciano Spalletti following their round-of-16 elimination at Euro 2024. Across their last 10 matches in all competitions, the Azzurri hold a record of 6 wins, 2 draws, and 2 defeats, scoring 17 goals and conceding 11. In Nations League League A Group 2, Italy remain unbeaten with 3 wins and 1 draw, leading the group with 10 points.
Their group phase began with an impressive 3-1 away victory against France at the Parc des Princes, followed by a 2-1 win over Israel and a commanding 4-1 victory against Israel in Udine. Their only dropped points came in the reverse fixture against Belgium (2-2), a game Italy dominated with a 2-0 lead before Lorenzo Pellegrini’s 38th-minute red card forced them into a defensive low block for more than fifty minutes.
Spalletti has successfully transitioned Italy into a fluid 3-5-1-1 system that maximizes central progression through in-form midfielders. Italy have scored at least two goals in all four of their Nations League matches this season, though they have also conceded in all four, illustrating an attack-oriented balance that leaves occasional gaps in transition defense.
Key Stats Comparison
The figures below represent the last 10 official matches for each national team up to November 2024.
| Metric | Belgium |
Italy |
|---|---|---|
| W / D / L | 4 / 3 / 3 | 6 / 2 / 2 |
| Avg. goals scored | 1.20 | 1.70 |
| Avg. goals conceded | 0.90 | 1.10 |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 2 |
| Failed to score | 3 | 1 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 80% |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 60% |
| Both Teams to Score (BTTS) | 40% | 70% |
| Avg. xG per match | 1.34 | 1.68 |
| Avg. xGA per match | 1.12 | 1.05 |
Strength of Opposition
Italy’s recent offensive figures carry considerable weight because they were achieved primarily against top-tier European opposition, including a 3-1 away win in Paris against France and a multi-goal performance against Belgium. Spalletti’s team has generated an average of 1.68 xG against League A opponents, proving that their output is sustainable against organized defensive units.
In contrast, Belgium’s underlying metrics over the past 10 matches were boosted by fixtures against lower-ranked sides such as Slovakia, Romania, and Israel. Against elite competition (France twice and Italy once), Belgium have failed to win, posting 1 draw and 2 defeats while conceding 6 goals across those 270 minutes.
Belgium Key Players
- Romelu Lukaku: Belgium’s all-time leading scorer returns to the squad after missing the October fixtures. His physical hold-up play and penalty-box efficiency (85 international goals in 119 appearances) are vital given the absence of primary creators De Bruyne and Doku.
- Loïs Openda: The RB Leipzig forward offers vertical threat and pace behind opposition backlines. Openda has registered 5 goals in the Bundesliga this season and won the penalty against France in the previous window, acting as Belgium’s primary counter-attacking outlet.
- Amadou Onana: The Aston Villa midfielder provides crucial ball recovery and physical shielding in front of the central defense, averaging 2.8 tackles and 1.9 aerial duels won per 90 minutes in competitive international matches.
Italy Key Players
- Mateo Retegui: The Atalanta striker is in exceptional form, leading Serie A with 11 goals in his first 12 league appearances and scoring in Italy’s 2-2 draw with Belgium last month. His pressing and clinical box movement give Italy a reliable focal point.
- Federico Dimarco: Operating as a left wing-back, Dimarco is Italy’s most potent creative weapon from open play and set pieces. He delivered an elite display against France and provided the assist for Italy’s second goal in the reverse fixture against Belgium.
- Sandro Tonali: Since returning to the international setup, Tonali has anchored Spalletti’s midfield with box-to-box energy, completing 88% of his passes and contributing directly to both transition defense and offensive combinations.
Key Betting Factors
-
Factor 1 —
Italy’s consistent offensive production under Spalletti. Italy have scored 2 or more goals in each of their four Nations League fixtures this campaign, amassing 11 total goals (2.75 per match). Their tactical structure generates superior overloads in wide areas through Dimarco and Cambiaso, which consistently breaches structured defenses. -
Factor 2 —
Belgium’s severe creative injury crisis. The Red Devils enter this match without Kevin De Bruyne, Jérémy Doku, and Charles De Ketelaere, stripping Tedesco of his primary progressive passers and 1v1 dribblers. In their absence, Belgium’s open-play chance creation drops substantially, placing excessive pressure on direct balls into Lukaku. -
Factor 3 —
Italy’s lack of clean sheets despite strong results. While Italy remain unbeaten in League A2, they have conceded at least one goal in all four group matches (5 total conceded). Belgium have scored in 3 of their 4 group matches, and with Lukaku leading the line, the home side retains sufficient finishing power to threaten Donnarumma’s goal. -
Factor 4 — Tournament standings dictate game management.
Belgium must win to preserve any mathematical chance of reaching the Nations League quarter-finals, meaning they cannot sit back in a passive block. Italy need only a point to secure qualification, allowing them to absorb Belgian pressure and exploit transition spaces behind high fullbacks.
Verdict and Prediction
Italy arrive in Brussels in superior form and tactical cohesion compared to a depleted Belgian side missing critical components of its creative spine. The tactical matchup favors the visitors: Belgium are compelled to push forward to seek a must-win result, which will expose spaces between their lines for Tonali, Barella, and Retegui to exploit on quick breaks.
The likely scenario features Italy controlling central territory early via their midfield numerical advantage before exploiting Belgium’s high line through wing-back switches. While Belgium possess enough set-piece and counter-attacking threat through Lukaku to find the net, Italy’s structure makes an away defeat improbable over 90 minutes.
🟢 Low Risk
Double Chance: Italy or Draw (X2)
Italy are unbeaten in the Nations League (3 wins, 1 draw) and dismantled France away from home earlier in the group. With Belgium winning just 1 of their last 6 competitive games and missing key creative creators, the Azzurri possess sufficient stability to avoid defeat in Brussels.
🟡 Medium Risk
Both Teams to Score — Yes
Italy have conceded in every single Nations League group fixture this season (4 out of 4), while Belgium have scored 6 goals in their 4 group games. With Lukaku returning to Belgium’s forward line and Italy regularly generating over 1.5 xG per match, both attacks have clear pathways to the scoreboard.
🔴 High Risk
Italy to Win and Both Teams to Score (Italy & BTTS – Yes)
Italy scored 3 in Paris and held a 2-0 lead against Belgium before being reduced to ten men in October. Given Belgium’s obligation to attack and their defensive vulnerabilities against elite sides (conceding 4 goals in two matches against France), Italy have the finishing quality to secure all three points while conceding on the break.
Confidence Level
Confidence level: medium.
The confidence is supported by Italy’s distinct superiority in tactical cohesion, unbeaten group stage record, and Belgium’s extensive casualty list in midfield and attack. The element of uncertainty stems from Romelu Lukaku’s return to the Belgian lineup and Italy’s slight defensive vulnerability, having failed to record a clean sheet in this Nations League campaign.
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